Sunday 7th December

Gordon Brown invented the Autumn Statement and it has grown in stature and now rivals the actual budget.  Not that that many changes usually happen then, but it is a great announcer of policy and direction, and to be fair the latest one by Gideon did just that.  How he quite got away with announcing he had broken his promise (Judge us on this – Cameron had said) of eliminating the deficit and in fact extending that deadline yet one more year into the long grass I don’t quite know.  He actually bragged about how much (or little if you like) he had achieved even though this year he will again miss the target set by the OBR only 8 months ago.

Then he pulled the rabbit of a major stamp reform out of the hat, and it was as if all had been forgiven.   Everyone was a winner, well almost everyone.  But in reality it will make no difference, prices will move to close down any nominal advantage a house purchaser might have gained in a very short while.  Also, and far more importantly, nothing he announced will change people’s minds come May.  The vast majority of us will have made up our minds already and nothing short of a disaster will make us change.  Even though Ed is pretty hopeless most Labour voters will still vote Labour, who else is there for them.  True some may be tempted by UKIP but they will have made their minds up already I think.  The Tories will also mostly revert to type and though they may despise Cameron they will not be able to bring themselves to vote for UKIP either.  The Lib-Dems will recover slightly and will hold on to slightly more than half their seats but where they have no sitting MP their vote will collapse and go to the Greens or Labour.  That leaves UKIP, and I really wonder how many people professing now that they will vote for them will do so come May.  They may well win a handful of seats and affect the result in a few more, but I suspect the Election result will be much as the polls are now.  A slight lead for Labour which given the way the one-part system works will make them the largest party.  A Lib, Lab and maybe even SNP Coalition looks likely.