Thursday 13th March

Which Ed?  Ed Milliband or Ed Balls?  Well, both really.  Ed Balls is so tarnished by his close association with Gordon Brown, coupled with his too-fast mode of speech, where words and ideas tumble out of his mind with little time for pause or thought.  Let us hope there isn’t a TV debate between Osborne, Cable and Balls because Vince will win hands down.

Ed Milliband has an unfortunate pallor, unruly hair and a tendency to frown on TV.  When he has a platform, at conference for instance he is a very accomplished speaker – but how many potential voters watch conference speeches, or even the soundbites on the news.  The Tories will undoubtedly make the 2015 election almost a Presidential one, emphasizing the Statesman-like presence of Cameron and the relative inexperience of Ed.  Who knows how it will end, but usually the polls at the start of the campaign proper are a good indication of who will actually win.

Labour may well be elected despite Ed, and not because of him.  After all – now that the LibDems have shown how happy they are to ditch their principles there is nowhere else on the left for voters to go to.  Many may actually drift towards UKIP, though Labour should be safe in the North and old City centres.  A lot could depend too on how the Scottish Referendum goes.  If Salmond wins the SNP may make big gains on the euphoria in the General Election.  If, as I suspect, they lose, Labour may be able to claw back in Scotland, especially if they offer Devo-Max.

It is far too late to change either of the Eds now and Labour must just plug on regardless.  I suspect that Labour will end up the largest party, and may have to go into Coalition with the rump of the LibDems.

Not such a terrible prospect.