Wednesday 2nd October

The Tories are getting pretty desperate.  Despite indications of a recovery on the economy they aren’t recovering in the polls.  They blame UKIP who are polling about 14%.  And wishfully think that if these UKIP voters returned to the Tory fold then they would be back in the mid forties – Thatcher territory at least.  My analysis is somewhat different.  I think that the three main parties have a core vote which will vote for them no matter what, and is roughly Labour 27%, Conservative 30% Lib Dem 10%.  These core voters vote the same way every election and in good times and bad the main parties can rely on this sort of a vote.   The Tories at the moment are on not much more than that, 33- 34% in most polls.  This is its core vote and a few who probably voted for them in 2010 and may vote Tory again.  I think there will be some increase and Cameron will end up with roughly the same vote as last time.  The collapse of the LibDems won’t be quite as dramatic as predicted either and they may end up a few MPs down but with about 15% of the vote.  UKIP will be very lucky to break through anywhere but will upset the apple cart in quite a few places.  Contrary to popular view I think they take quite a few votes from Labour too, but mostly in places where Labour is strong enough to win anyway.

The Tories know this, and their only hope of retaining power is to turn yet again to the Politics of Division.  Their slogan for this party conference says it all.  “For Hardworking People”.   As if anyone would possibly describe themselves as not hardworking.  Inherited millionaires like Osborne of course consider themselves as particularly hardworking.  But it of course automatically creates a fortress mentality.  We are the good guys, fighting against all these lazy people who don’t (won’t) work, and taking all our taxes to feed their drug and drink habits.  And then there are the immigrants, coming over here and skiving on the dole.  It is the politics of division and shows the Tories are really rattled.

But Labour must be very careful, it is a powerful if evil message, and might just work.