Tuesday 23rdJuly

Well it had to eventually; there is only so much damage any Government can actually do.  But strangely that will not necessarily be bad news for Labour.  If we were still up to our necks in the poo, it might have been the case that the public would still trust the Tories over Labour.  But with confidence and house prices rising and people feeling a bit better off I suspect that the Austerity argument will hold less weight.  Besides the inevitable result of several of their less well-thought through policies will be coming to fruition.   The totally unnecessary re-organisation of the Health Service and the deliberate ditching of targets will mean that the already rickety system starts to fail; hospitals closing, people waiting longer and longer for operations will bring with it dissatisfaction.   And while in theory the cuts to benefits are popular, as more and more people become homeless and are re-housed at extra cost, and more and more, often working, people will be relying on foodbanks the public mood may subtly shift.

Politics is always a pendulum, swinging back and forth; the clever politicians realizing that politics is indeed the art of the possible will be able to read the public mood and know when enough is enough.  The Tories may have pushed the pendulum too hard and too fast.

Besides everything else, despite a pretty dire time for Ed Milliband; trouble with the Unions, a lack of a clear vision, and announcing that the cuts approved for 2016-2017 will not be reversed, Labour has held up remarkably well in the polls.  Or more to the point the Tory vote has not really budged from about 32% for over two years.  This is just about their core support.

Of course anything can happen and the election is nearly two years away, but I suspect that Labour and the Tories may well poll roughly the same, with Labour slightly ahead.  This will make Labour the largest party with the Lib-Dems holding on to most of their seats but with a reduced share of the vote.  Ukip will poll well but I doubt they will win any seats, but they could well stop the Tories form winning several marginals.  Labour may be able to govern on their own, but may need LibDem support.  I suspect that many Liberals will feel more comfortable in bed with Labour than with their previous bedmates.

So, interesting times ahead.