Tuesday 19th April

Not the Referendum Campaigns which seem to be mired in predictions of disaster whether we stay or leave the EU but America.  It is difficult for us over here to see quite what is happening over there.  We get a few news reports as individual states hold their respective caucuses or primaries but no real feeling for what America is thinking or will do on that fateful day in November.  Some might say that it really doesn’t matter that much as Presidents have such little real power, and looking at the eight year of Obama which started with such hope and are limping to a small conclusion they may appear to be right.  But then again if we look at the eight Bush years, the fateful decision to invade Iraq, the bully-boy language, the arrogance and the distancing of America from Europe we must consider what would have been had Obama not won.  And actually he has stabilized America and rebuilt the economy better than most commentators had predicted after the Financial Crash of 2008.  He has appeared hesitant over Syria, which may in the end have been a good thing, and he has brought in a limited healthcare for the poorest, a measure hated by the Republicans.

But who will be President next?  That is the big question, and so far there appears to be no clear answer.  For a while Hilary seemed a shoo-in, but her message is bland bland bland, and Bernie Sanders has galvanized younger people with his vision of socialism-lite in much the same way as Jeremy Corbyn did over here.  On paper Hilary is still ahead despite recent wins by Bernie and it may all depend on the New York Primary and maybe California, still a way off.  A big surprise win in NY, where Hilary is Senator, by Bernie and who knows, the whole campaign may swing behind him.  If Hilary holds New York she will almost certainly be the Democratic candidate.  But can either of them afford to ignore the supporters of the other.  Maybe a dream ticket would be Hilary with Bernie as her Vice-President.

There is very little chance of such a deal on the other side, too much vitriol has already been served up and swallowed by both Cruz and Trump.  And while Trump is ahead he is so hated by the Republican Establishment and is seen as such a loose cannon that they are desperate to deny him the majority of delegates he needs.  And Ted Cruz isn’t much better, he is also an outsider and a rabid Conservative with views almost as obnoxious as Trump – besides he is a long way behind, and even if Trump is denied an outright win on the first ballot it seems unlikely that his supporters will swing behind the hated Cruz.  Some commentators are pinning their hopes on a brokered Convention, whereby mysteriously if no-one wins on the first ballot a compromise candidate emerges who maybe wasn’t even contending early on.  Stranger things have happened.  But my best bet will be Trump against Hilary – and that could get very nasty indeed.  Hopefully commonsense will prevail (just as in our referendum) and they will go for boring old safety rather than the unpredictable future that a Trump Presidency would bring to both America and the World.