Friday 3rd April

Of course I do not know the result of yesterday’s elections yet, but almost certainly UKIP will make big advances.  Whether they will gain that many seats and what that will really mean to local democracy I am not sure.  It is largely a protest vote, and of course, we have seen this before – The SDP, The Greens a few years ago, and the Lib-Dems recently.   But this is different; this appears to be a groundswell coming from the right, and rather than the Left being divided it is now the turn of the Tories.

And UKIP have not actually sprung from nowhere; they are exceedingly well funded and one must ask the question why.   Many on the Tory party are worried by Cameron and his fairly Centrist policies, the recent spate of Thatcher worship showed just how rabid the Right are.  Cameron realised that after three election defeats people just didn’t like the Tories, especially with fairly right-wing leaders like Haig, IDS and Howard, and he took the view that taking over the mantle of the middle ground from Blair would rehabilitate the Tory party.  And to a degree he was right.   But of course in doing that he has angered the Right who want unadulterated Thatcherism again.  And here is the rub.

I am fairly certain that some of those millionaires supporting UKIP are doing it in order to make the Tory party a real Tory party again, by scaring it into reverting to type and lurching to the Right.   To some degree they have already succeeded in that they have got Cameron to agree to an in-out referendum, but only after the election, which of course it is quite likely that Cameron will lose anyway.  There is now pressure to get a commitment to a vote before the next election.  Quite a lot of Tory MPs are clamouring for it already, maybe in fear of UKIP, but maybe also as a result of what the backers of UKIP want all along.

If the Tories do significantly move to the right, especially over Europe, we could well see the media and some of the financial support for UKIP suddenly subside.  I wonder where the ‘protest’ vote will go then?