Monday 3rd November

Sad to say I now believe this to be the most likely scenario.  And what a disaster it will surely be.  Too many forces are converging at the same time.  The rise of UKIP is fuelling xenophobia and a thinly disguised racism.  Cameron has bluffed and blustered and blundered his way into a tight corner of his own making – partly to please his backbenchers and partly because he is scared of losing seats to UKIP.   Labour are being led by someone who (nice man as he may be) has a charisma problem the size of the Bristol Channel and are steadily losing ground with each month that passes.  The Lib-Dems, incidentally the only openly pro-European party are in terminal decline and will be lucky to retain half their seats.  In Scotland Labour are being beaten into second place by a rampant SNP.  And to cap it all, our only half-ally in Europe Angela Merkel has just let it be known that she would rather see the UK leave Europe than to dilute the “free movement of people” principle; the very thing that Cameron had said will be at the heart of his so-called renegotiation.

I cannot now see Labour winning next May, and quite possibly they will not even be the largest party at all.  So it is a strong possibility that there will be another Tory-led coalition.  Cameron will then have to try to renegotiate and will come back with a few minor reforms, which UKIP will rubbish.  I cannot see Labour supporting him, and so there will be a referendum he will almost certainly lose.  Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.