Wednesday 14th June

The moment Theresa may lost her majority, and if the election had gone on a while longer, possibly the election itself.  In that moment when she truly lost it, and waved her hands in the air, her shell of perfect composure and confidence cracked and we all saw her for what she was.

Well, six days after the election and she can no longer claim that nothing has changed.  Everything has changed.  Even though Theresa May is still Prime Minister everybody knows she lost the argument, and almost lost her job.  She is now at the mercy of three things.  Her own Cabinet, who have almost admitted that she was a Dictator, are now in charge.  She cannot afford to disagree with any of them.  Sacking a senior Cabinet member is now unthinkable, they would automatically become the leading contender for her job.  Two, she is at the mercy of her own party.  In the delicate and complex Brexit negotiations she could run into trouble from either side – she may find it almost impossible to get any consensus.  In some ways the long smouldering divide in the Tory party over Europe is about to re-open.  The nuclear option of simply walking away from what she might consider a ‘bad deal’ is receding fast.  A consensual approach is now essential.  Thirdly, of course, there is the DUP, and the whole Peace process in Northern Ireland, which could erupt in unexpected and uncontrollable ways.  A deal with the DUP is fraught with danger.

Then of course, there is the Opposition.  The wind is in Jeremy Corbyn’s sails.  The Tories are running scared of another election, at least in the foreseeable future.  The Labour party is at last united, both in the country and in Westminster.  The young are flocking to join Labour.  I can see a long hot summer of discontent.

So, nothing has changed.  But of course, everything has changed.