Friday 18th December
One of the most enjoyable aspects of football today is seeing managers sacked. A run of bad results, losing to old rivals or simply a disagreement with the owner can mean the chop. Not that we should feel that sorry for them, they usually walk away with millions in compensation and seem to pop-up again managing another side in pretty short order. And now we have the ultimate – the sacking of Jose Mourinho, a colourful and incredibly successful manager (well, he used to be). And it is true and almost unbelievable that Chelsea have suffered a catastrophic loss of form. Only last May they won the Premier League by 8 points, they were almost invincible and now they are one or two points above the relegation zone.
Now, the question I have to ask is this “Is success as a football manager more about luck than judgement?” No-one can deny that certain managers have had long-term success, Alex Ferguson being the best example, but he was also managing a great team and money for buying new players never seemed a problem. So what exactly does a manager do? Number one would seem to be to pick the team, and make substitutions on the day. It used to be the case that you always selected the best possible team for every game, but we often have the unedifying spectacle of very poor teams playing in the League cup (or whatever they call it these days) as managers are saving their best players for European or League games. One supposes that tactics and where you play your men must be a skill, though I often struggle to discern a 3, 3, 4 from a 5, 3, 1 formation, and then we find that players quite out of position have managed to surge forward and score a goal. Buying or selling players is nowadays a business in itself where money is more important than a manager’s wishes – and of course everyone wants the best players. Though apparently Chelsea had the best players last year and this year they haven’t.
I suspect that in many cases games are won or lost more by luck than judgement. Refereeing decisions can award a penalty or not. The ball can pepper the posts and bar and not go in, or a careless back-pass can dribble past your own goalie. Which all makes the game that much more fascinating. It is also true that a good run of results gives even mediocre players more confidence just as losing games you should have won can sap player’s self-belief. Maybe the best managers are the ones who can simply instill self-belief in a team even when results are going against them. And here is maybe the reason for Mourinho’s failure. A tactical genius who was used to winning could not get his players to win when they began to lose games. And maybe those games lost were down more to luck than judgement. Whatever, it does warm the cockles of one’s heart to see Jose limp to the bank with even more of Roman’s money than any of us will ever contemplate having. Don’t you just love football?