It Seems Improbable

Thursday 22nd March

It seems improbable that a bright new future awaits us after Brexit.   It seems improbable that the EU will give us frictionless trade and no tariffs, when that is what we have just rejected.  It seems improbable that Corporations making cars and other goods who have factories all over Europe will continue doing so without the simplicity of being able to ship components from one country to another with no checks.  It seems improbable that Companies planning investments years ahead will continue to invest in a country about to leave its largest trading partners.  It seems improbable that a deal can be reached in only seven months when it has taken almost a year to not even agree the legal basis of a deal, even when that was agreed and signed up to three months ago.  It seems improbable that the border with Northern Ireland can remain open when we are no longer a part of the Single Currency.  It seems improbable that when the deal (whatever that looks like) comes to the Commons for ratification it will be agreed upon.  It seems improbable that Theresa may can hang on for another year with her party so split over Europe.  It seems improbable that the Conservatives will ever be trusted again.  It seems improbable that they will ever properly fund the NHS and schools and local councils.  It seems improbable that we are actually living through this daily nonsense, when everyone knows it is unsustainable.

But probability has nothing to do with it.  It seemed improbable that the public would ever vote for Brexit.  It seemed improbable that Trump would ever become President.  It seemed improbable – but probability had nothing to do with it.

It is impossible to predict what will happen next week let alone next year or at the next election.  It seems improbable that everything will work out fine and the Government will be re-elected by a thankful country.  But probability has nothing to do with it.

The only probability is that I will still be writing about how improbable everything is for a while yet…