Friday 6th June

After all the kerfuffle and media speculation of the local and European elections of two weeks ago there was quite a bit of interest on the bi-election at Newark.  This was a very safe Tory seat, with over 50% of the vote but the word was that UKIP might take it.  But strangely a lot of the noise about UKIP has suddenly dissipated.  It is as if the Press had had their fill and now decided to move on.  As it happened the Tories safely held on to Newark, reduced turnout, reduced majority but still a good win.  Ukip came second, taking some votes from Labour and a lot from the LibDems who limped in sixth.

So what does this tell us about what might happen at the General Election?  Precisely nothing.  It is most likely that the Tories will hold on to Newark, and most other mostly rural seats.  Labour will probably hold onto the Inner Cities.  The LibDems will hang on to seats in the Celtic fringes but may well lose others, maybe to the Tories despite their losing votes too.  Such is the lottery of the first past the post system.  The interesting phenomenon may be just how well UKIP manages to do in a few places like Essex and the Midlands and some traditional marginal seats may be upset too.

Unfortunately no matter how exciting bi-election results may be they very rarely tell us who will win at the General Election.  They can severely embarrass a Government and give great hope and publicity to opposition parties but they are no indicator of the eventual result.