Sunday 5th June
It seems that the referendum is now the only game in town, as far as the news media are concerned at any rate. All other news is being relegated to a lower division, with little hope of gaining promotion until after June 23rd. And even then the aftermath of that decision may well sweep us all away in a torrent of new news stories. There are already rumours that Cameron will face a challenge to his leadership even if he wins; and the consensus is that if he loses he will be toast…
Well, much as I would relish seeing him singed on both sides and being ejected from Number 10 when his time is up, I don’t think the gain (short-term until some other Tory is elected in his place) will be anywhere near worth losing the referendum for. I may well feel a bit sick when he stands outside Number 10 and declares victory, but the very fact that the polls are too close for comfort means that a large, or shall we say a comfortable, margin is looking unlikely at the moment. My best guess at the moment is that he will scrape through by maybe 4 or 5 %, which he will immediately declare a great victory. However when the analysis is done and it is discovered that it was the cities and Wales and Scotland who voted overwhelmingly to stay (all Labour or anti-Tory SNP areas) and it was the shires of England and small towns which voted overwhelmingly to leave – and that his “victory” was indeed anything but an endorsement by his own party or a resounding applause for his so-called ‘re-negotiation’, but actually a rejection of the mainstream Tory philosophy which seems to be a yearning for times long past, last seen half-way through the last Century when Britons were white and deferential to their natural rulers (if ever such a time really existed). If he wins by anything less than a decisive margin it will not either solve the European issue for a generation (look what has happened in Scotland) or the huge divisions in the Tory party.
And Labour are also divided, with the membership overwhelmingly in favour of some real Socialism, while the M.P.s and a still sizeable minority, and possible a huge majority of traditional Labour voters wishing for a more moderate approach. Where this will leave us all I really do not know. I cannot see even Boris managing to unite the Tories and there is no alternative to Jeremy on the Labour side now that Andy Burnham has decided to try to become Mayor of Greater Manchester. The LibDems are still in the doldrums and UKIP are hardly likely to make much headway either. I see a new coalition looming, though exactly what composition it will be I have no idea.