Sunday 8th May

So, after all the furore, what do the local election results tell us?  Hardly anything we didn’t already know; local election results rarely do.  I can remember during the eighties how each year Kinnock would pile up local election successes year by year, only to be smashed by the Tories at the General Elections.  The truth is that only a few of the general public are that interested in Politics until the General Election, and that local elections are no predictor of the eventual result.  For one thing the turnout is usually low, except strangely this time in London which saw an increase of 7% in those turning out to vote.  Secondly, local issues may well be of more concern than national ones; if the local council, of whatever complexion, is doing a reasonably good job there seems no point in changing (only in General Election years when local and national elections are on the same day do we see big changes).   And thirdly, it is only one year since the last General Election and four years to the next one – so whatever the result it would bear little influence on the big one.

Having said that, here is my analysis.  Firstly Scotland, where Labour suffered again at the hands of the SNP, and a resurgent Tory party led by the formidable and strongly Unionist Ruth Davidson.  Labour have a huge problem and can only hope that gradually the Independence question will settle down and normal politics can be resumed; however I suspect that at the next General Election it still be a huge issue and Labour will struggle to improve on their sole M.P. north of the border.  Wales was much the same but Labour suffered incursions form both UKIP and Plaid but are still strongly in control.  England was much the same with only a handful of small changes; both Labour and the Tories losing around 30 councillors each.  London was predominantly Labour in 2015 and will probably remain so, especially now that Sadiq is Mayor; this was the one real victory for Labour, but London is far more progressive than the rest of the country. What we must also remember was that the last time these seats were fought was in 2012, when Ed Milliband (remember him) was riding high and won hundreds of seats back from the Tories.  So, compared to that this was a decent Labour performance.  I don’t think all the negative press about Jeremy has had much effect, not that that means in won’t at the General Election.  The real trouble for Labour is that they have no-one with the charisma or the drive to enthuse the general public and may well muddle along with Jeremy until 2020.  But politics is a funny old game and four years is a long time.  What could well happen then is that nothing much changes, except that the Tories lose a few more seats and no longer have a majority.  Then the scenario with which they scared everyone last time could well come true and an unholy alliance between Labour and the SNP takes over; and the price of that could be another Referendum.  But hang on a minute, there is an even more important referendum in seven weeks time and that could change everything.