Friday 6th May

I am writing this around 5 on Thursday afternoon; I am back for a flying visit to U.K.  And today is election day, for the London Mayor and Assembly and for many town councils around the country so I don’t know the results.  And this is the first election since the surprise of Jeremy Corbyn becoming leader of the Labour Party last September.   I say surprise because at the beginning of the contest nobody gave Jeremy a chance; but in retrospect the decision by his predecessor Ed Milliband to open up the decision to every Labour member meant that all predictions counted for naught.  Anyway, whether a good decision or not (by Ed)Jeremy won by a country mile and now these local elections are being seen as some sort of a referendum by the general public on Jeremy himself.

However I suspect that the general public, most of them at any rate, couldn’t give a toss about Jeremy and will stay at home in their droves, as they usually do.  Sadly ‘Apathy’ is the largest growing Political movement in the country.  Those who do go out and vote, the elderly or those with distinct political views, will probably vote as they usually do, along tribal lines.  Except maybe in London, where Labour has been gaining ground over the last few elections.  I expect Sadiq to win and the Assembly to have a Labour Majority; but of course I could be wrong.  As for the rest of the country, it is hard to tell.  I think that Labour will make a few gains and suffer a few losses, but of course the political commentators will see anything other than huge gains as a setback and the public’s rejection of Jeremy.   And in a way it is, Jeremy has not set the country alight, it is way too early in the electoral cycle to do that, in fact this modern habit of defeated party leaders resigning on election night is a bit stupid, it gives the party no time to recover and choose a leader sensibly.

Anyway, I expect and especially after the latest anti-semitism row, that there will be renewed dissent from a few Blairite Labour M.P.s.  But I expect this to be shortlived.  The big one will be the Euro referendum, which still shows no signs of being decided either way.  If the vote is to leave, Mr. Cameron may not be the only party leader in trouble; if Labour voters appear to vote leave against Jeremy’s advice this could be a much bigger problem for Labour and I predict a Leadership challenge soon after.  And I actually doubt whether Jeremy will want to stand again – enter Andy Burnham….

You read it here first.