Monday 7th July

So, after all the upsets, the early exits, the surprise results the most predictable of semi-finals is almost upon us.  The big four, Brasil, Germany, Argentina and Holland will fight it out for a place in the final.  At the moment it is finely balanced, two from Europe and two from South America.  It could be an all Europe final, though European countries rarely if ever win outside of Europe or those two old adversaries will make it a South American final.

I must say though that no side has really dominated.  Games have often been decided by the slightest of margins.  In all honesty I don’t think that England were any worse or better than Italy or Uruguay in our group, and we actually drew with the surprise best team Costa Rica.  Italy after scraping through against us couldn’t beat anyone else and Uruguay without Saurez’s two touches of brilliance were quite ordinary.  Elsewhere Brasil have signally failed to impress, winning on penalties or appearing to have the referee on their side.  They do have home advantage though, and even in a penalty shootout this may make a difference.  Argentina have plodded, though plodding was enough to get them through.  Germany have been reliably German, never giving up and always capable of winning any game.  And Holland started off so brilliantly against Spain have seemed to find it harder as each game has gone on to connect moments of brilliance and keep scoring.  To win the tournament is quite simple really; just win seven games.  But the difference is that the sides who consistently get to this stage are real tournament sides, they know that it is a hard slog, but they also have that inner belief, that certainty that a place at the top table is theirs by right.  England have no such self-belief, we know we won’t win it and therefore we never do.

So who will it be?  Brasil will I think get to the final but be beaten by the Dutch after extra time.  How about that for a prediction?  I am almost certain to be wrong, but it’s fun guessing.