Waiting For The Miracle

Wednesday 20th May

Dear Leonard Cohen wrote a song called ‘Waiting for the Miracle”, but I am not going to even begin to analyse that today.  It seems to me that we are in a bit of a muddle as a nation.  We have just had an election and like magicians auditioning for ‘Britain Has No Talent’ one after the other our politicians tried to persuade us that the Miracle was not only achievable but just around the corner.  Everyone loves the NHS and wants it to be available for us twenty four hours a day, seven days a week and completely free and quick and the best in the world.  We are in a demographic pickle too, where those over sixty-five and likely to need more and more expensive treatment are increasing as a proportion of the population.  In other words more of us are getting older and living longer and I, along with many others will be calling on the NHS more and more in the future.  Also in a competitive world we need to educate our children better, everyone is agreed though there are differences as to the best system.  All of this does and will continue to cost more money.  There are also huge issues around social care, especially again for the elderly; families are no longer prepared or able to provide care and someone will have to do it and it will cost more money.  So, it is obvious to me that if we want what we all say we want, better hospitals, better schools and better care it will cost more and more as time goes on.  And yet all our politicians say it can be done without raising taxes; in fact both Labour and the Tories felt compelled to promise that they would not increase income tax, national insurance or VAT for the next five years.  And despite five years of cuts and austerity we are still way into deficit and the national debt is increasing by around 90 billion a year.  Oh, of course they all promised to eliminate this deficit in the five years too.  Mind you the Tories promised that last time round too.  So, how is it to be done?  How will the rabbit be pulled from the hat when the conjuror has no clothes, let alone a hat, at all?  Somehow the miracle can be achieved by cutting out waste, but we did that last time, oh and the time before or so we were told.  Or by growth; but actually despite a bit of growth last time the miracle was not performed.  Growth only works if people are actually feeling more positive and spending more and by the way almost all of the post-war growth had been accompanied by and actually achieved by huge increases in personal debt, which despite record low interest rates we may be reaching the limit of.

Now I know that this is political suicide but I can remember paying 33% income tax with a much smaller tax-free personal allowance, we are now paying only 20% and yet no-one dares to suggest that this should rise – at least if they want to get elected.  So, we are sitting hushed as the magician approaches the stage, the house lights dim, the mood music swells, promises are made of prestigitation to come.  We are waiting for the miracle, just as audiences did centuries ago as alchemists promised to turn base metal into gold.  And I too am waiting to see just how we can pay no more tax, and still maintain spending on schools and the NHS, to say nothing of Trident and somehow it will all be wonderful again, the deficit will disappear and hey presto!! Tax cuts are just around the corner too….