Friday 17th October

I am an avid watcher of Opinion Polls, and even though I sometimes doubt their accuracy, and the fact that nowadays lots is done by telephone and not face to face, there are so many that combined they do seem to give a good indication of the way people are thinking.  Incidentally for the first time a week or so ago I was phoned by a polling company (about the Clacton by-election actually – but still) and asked my opinion; fame at last.

Every so often one gets a shock, such as when UKIP do spectacularly well or Cameron promises a tax cut and there is a small surge of support for one party or another.  However what I am noticing these days is that the figures are remarkably consistent.  Tories averaging 31- 32%, Labour 34-35%, LibDems 6-8% and Ukip 15-17%.  Of course these figures mean absolutely nothing, they are if anything a snapshot at a given moment in time.  However my (limited) experience is that by the time the actual campaign kicks off there is not that much movement until the real vote.  All the bluster and TV coverage, the debates, the gaffes, the phot-ops and the promises do not actually sway that many people at all.

Two interesting facts – No governing party has ever increased its’ share of the vote (as opposed to number of M.P.s {Maggie had the good luck of a very divided opposition when she won her landslides in ‘83 and ;87} except Harold Wilson in the second ’74 election – and that only marginally) at subsequent elections; Blair won 43%, then 41% and finally 39% although he only lost a few seats each time.  Secondly no party has come back into power after such a defeat as Labour suffered in 2010 in one election.  Labour took four goes in the eighties and the Tories lost three after 1997.

And no-one knows exactly how the demise of the LibDems will play out in seat losses, or how much UKIP will affect everyone, or indeed how well the SNP will do in Scotland.  And even though the percentages may resemble the opinion polls today, the distribution of those votescould be quite surprising.  All to play for, I would say.