The SNP scare stories

Saturday 25th April

We are approaching the end-game now and frankly no-one really knows.  And the Tories are desperate.  They had relied on the contrast of geeky ungainly and awkward Milliband against cool experienced Cameron, but the more we have see of Ed the more confident he has appeared; in fact the public are quite warming to him.  Okay he will never appear as smooth as Blair, but maybe that’s a good thing – but the public has not responded to him by flocking to the Tories.  Then they tried the bribes, inheritance tax cuts, 8 billion extra for the NHS and the right to buy for Housing Association tenants.  None of that has cut any ice with the public either so they have now resorted to FEAR.

And the current bogeywoman is Nicola Sturgeon who, on the backs of what should have been a disastrous defeat when they lost the referendum, has turned her party into an overwhelming force in Scotland.  It looks as if Labour will lose around 40 M.P.s north of the border.  But the LibDems will possibly lose ten too, and the Tories will certainly gain none.  And as all of those SNP winners will end up supporting Labour the Tories are running scared.   So, although the news is all about Scotland and the Tories are trying to scare everyone about these terrible Scots, the real battle is, as it always was going to be, in England.

The polls have barely moved and although they may all be wrong on the day itself it looks as if neither Labour or the Tories can rule on their own.  It may well come down to just how many LibDem seats are lost.  Cameron may just scrape home with the DUP and the rump of the LibDems but it will be a coalition of the losers.  The momentum is with the SNP in Scotland and a slowly improving Labour in England.  I doubt actually whether Cameron will admit defeat for a few days and may actually attempt a Queens Speech as a minority and dare the others to vote him down.  And then Milliband would have his chance.  All to play for.