Wednesday 20th April

Well things seem to be hotting up a bit, although as we still have over eight weeks to go, we can expect a bit more mud to be slung as the Tory party tears itself apart.  I hate to think of Political Advantage at such a critical time, but it seems that this will only end very badly for the Tory party.  Even if Cameron wins, and all predictions are meaningless at the moment, his decision to hold the referendum at all is looking more and more of a dangerous gamble.  His recent travails regarding his father’s deep involvement with tax avoidance schemes have diminished him in the public’s eyes.  Also his possibly foolhardy decision to tell us before the last election that he would not be Prime Minster come 2020 means that there is a bubbling-under Leadership contest also tearing the Tories apart.  George Osborne is so mis-trusted that his recent dossier predicting financial ruin if we leave the EU is seen, even by those wanting to remain, as little more than a fairy story.

And this is the real problem with the Stay campaign; there is nothing positive being said to make people rush out and vote to stay, just dire warnings of what Brexit will mean.  There is also such an anti-politics mood among the general public that the chance to slap politicians in the face is maybe a bit too tempting.  I suspect that the Stay campaign is banking on their message of economic ruin if we leave will slowly seep into people’s consciousness the longer the campaign goes on, if they aren’t all asleep by then anyway.  And this is the other great danger, the longer the campaign goes on for the more apathetic the public may become and I reckon the Leavers are more determined to vote than the Stayers anyway.

Well, there are still a couple of months to go and things could change, but I fear that as a country we may be sleepwalking to disaster, just as we did a year ago at the General Election.