Thursday 11thJuly
We are in danger of confusing things. In fact we are always confusing things. What people think about things is rarely what is actually happening. Sometimes this is the result of news media trying to sway us one way or the other. The most important and desired job is that of news editor; in other words the person who decides what is actually news, and how it will be reported. This is why a speech is often trailed as groundbreaking before it is delivered, it is subsequently reported on as if it really were, and yet when we read it for ourselves it is simply a rehash of previous announcements. Blair was particularly good at this.
We are also swayed by reportage of sentiment. When the CBI or Institute of Directors say that they can feel the economy is beginning to grow, this is more often sentiment than based on any facts. Sentiment is what you wish for, what you want to and hope will happen, and it is mostly based on your own desires. The fact that it is often reported as fact can certainly help confidence.
Confidence is the most fickle of beasts, the sun shines and Murray wins Wimbledon everyone feels a bit more confident. It rains, we are unceremoniously dumped out of yet another World Cup and confidence sinks. But if enough sentiment is expressed as fact then confidence takes off and then real growth can result.
Fact is so often behind the game, whereas sentiment and confidence are ahead of it. The facts come out and they show that some of that confidence was misplaced, in fact it was mostly market sentiment and so confidence takes a knock and sentiment is amended, usually to express that despite the facts; things are not actually so bad and once confidence returns the facts will prove this sentiment correct. And so the cycle continues.
And in the real world, people still lose their jobs, a third of people are now working part-time, millions are still on the minimum wage and food banks and payday loans are the fastest growth areas in Britain. Ah…..but I am just being sentimental.