Rules for Skeptics, No. 37 – If it’s such a good idea it probably isn’t

Thursday 2nd October

I used to think I was an optimist, then after not a few knocks and a degree of my own stupidity I became quite pessimistic.  Of late I am more optimistic, at least about my own prospects – though you never know.  As far as the world is concerned I was idealistic as a teenager; surely this explosion of youth culture and hippy life-style would result in a far better world.  I almost believed in Communism as the answer, even if the very imperfect implementation in Russia and China had so obviously failed.  I sort of believed that when (and it was only a matter of time) most people realized it was the only sustainable way of life it would just happen.  Historical Inevitability I suppose.  Then came the slap in the face of Thatcherism, the brutally naked crushing of those ideals and the realisation that far more people shared her philosophy than mine.  Nowadays I am a hopeful skeptic.  And in a strange way, just as in one direction things are getting worse in others they are improving.  Racial equality; acceptance of gays; concern over the environment – all of these were once pie-in-the-sky, but are rapidly becoming established as the norm.

So, what does the title of this piece really mean; if it is such a good idea – it probably isn’t.  Almost no-one has a really original thought; rather we build on the achievements of others.  If it was that obvious someone else would have thought it already, and worked out that it doesn’t actually work. And almost every advance brings in its wake more problems.  So although we may think that there is a simple solution to a problem, there very rarely is.  Humans are not very good at thinking through the consequences of their actions, and so we lurch into ill-thought out policy changes based more on ideology than practicality.  And so, during this frenetic Conference season we will hear grand ideas and promises of a better future.  And it all sounds so simple, such good ideas – but they probably aren’t.