Wednesday 16th July

By the time you read this the Cabinet Reshuffle will be over.  I used to really get excited about these occasions.  Sad, isn’t it.  But not any more.  It barely makes any difference.  One face is replaced by another.  It may be a relief not to hear those flat Yorkshire tones of William Hague droning on about “something must be done about” and promptly doing nothing at all.  Foreign Secretary is a grand title with no real power except reacting to atrocities and events with aplomb.  It should suit Phillip Hammond perfectly.  Mind you, very rarely does a former Foreign Secretary become Prime Minister, so maybe he knows he is too old now.  Ian Duncan Smith is rumoured to be moved from the Ministry of Benefit Cuts and a friendlier female face will come in.  And at Environment too.  All shiny and new and ready for the election in ten months time.  Not that most of the electorate will care or even notice.  I suspect that most minds are already made up and unless some enormous cock-up occurs nothing much will change by next May.  It may be a close run thing, and the Tories may even get more votes and possibly more seats than Labour, but I don’t think so.  We may be in real unchartered territory with neither Labour or the Tories being able to command a majority, the Lib-Dems decimated and having to choose.  Though that task may actually fall to Alex Salmond, who while professing he wants to sever ties with Westminster may find himself Kingmaker extraordinaire.  In that case he would almost certainly pick Labour, but probably on a more casual basis, bill by bill, concentrating on getting a new devo-max bill through Parliament before yet another election.

The Tories are at a crossroads.  Win or lose they will almost certainly turn right again, probably ousting Cameron if he loses many seats.  The new cabinet joinees are for the moment the Walking Dead.  But for them, this is all about the future, especially the women.  They are looking to be the next Tory leader, they will have been Cabinet members for a few short months; long enough to get their faces on TV but not long enough to have brought in any new hated policies.  Interesting times we live in.