Brexit May Well Actually Mean Brexit

Friday 2nd September

So, we have all underestimated Mrs May.  We should have seen the signs sooner.  Looking back, so much was happening that many of us missed it; the hesitation (and the eventual relief) when she came down on the Remain side.  She was obviously tempted to lead the Leavers, but maybe decided that hedging her bets was the wisest policy.  It looks now as if she was a secret Brexiteer all along.  All of this ‘the will of the people must be obeyed’ is just eyewash; if she (or whoever succeeded Cameron) had wanted to, a fudge could easily have been managed. So, she has set out her stall; or at least put the trestles in place, even if we are not quite sure what she will be trying to sell, both to us and the EU.  The message coming from her office is that controlling Immigration will be her first priority, though they are qualifying that by adding that the best possible deal for Britain’s trade will also be sought.  She has also said that Parliament will not be allowed to vote on triggering Article 50.  I think she might have some difficulty with the second, to say nothing of the first.

Parliament must at least be consulted as leaving the EU is a major treaty change; I cannot see M.P.s, even on the Conservative side, simply accepting the Government’s terms – they may not be able to change them, but will certainly want to have a debate (probably many debates) about it.

As to the discussions with the other 27 countries, if Mrs May really has controlling Immigration as her red line, then she will have a very tough time indeed.  It is even possible that the EU will say “Fine, just go away then.”  And any future trading arrangements will be discussed later.  What will be most important for the EU will be stopping contagion, containing exiteers to just Britain, and confirming solidarity amongst the remaining 27 members. So, the idea that they will bend and break their rules just for us is frankly pie in the sky.  Of course they will want to trade with us, but remember this – even though we import more from the EU than we export, each individual country’s exports to the UK are far less than to the rest of the EU.  If we try to play hardball with them, they may simply draw up the drawbridge and unite against us.  Anyway, I don’t see how we can get free trade with the EU without free movement of people; or Cameron would have got it back in February (I am sure he would have asked for it).

Anyway it is going to be an interesting couple of years…