Friday 18th May

The only time that David Cameron has won any voter confidence has been when he has ‘got tough’ with Europe.  Last time he used his veto to prevent an agreement that was absolutely no threat to Britain and also in our long-term interests; result – the others went ahead and agreed it anyway and we limped along behind.  But from the Tories’ point of view it was a success, their poll ratings soared.

History has a strange way of repeating itself.  When the Tories last won power in 1979, after two years Mrs Thatcher was the most unpopular leader ever, and their policies of austerity were throwing people on the dole and the economy was sinking fast.  Then along came the Falklands crisis, and emotion overcame common sense; in the scheme of things it made little difference whether we defended the Falklands or not, it was hardly central to our identity or our economy, but defend it we did and despite the thousands who lost their lives it secured Margaret Thatcher’s re-election.  And now we are facing a different threat; Europe is in trouble, and as well as Cameron insisting that Europe has a choice to make, so too do we.  We can either help them and work for the common good or we can stand on the sidelines and try to protect ourselves from the waves as Greece sinks.  I have a pretty good idea what Mr. Cameron will choose to do, and he may well get a bounce in the polls for his stance.  But I am not sure if the trick can be pulled off twice, even if we go so far as to hold a referendum to leave Europe I am not so certain that the decision would be no.