Tuesday 4th October

So, Mrs. May will trigger Article 50 before March next year. That’s nice of her, but what isn’t so nice is that she won’t tell us or Parliament (not the same thing) exactly, or even generally, what she aims to achieve.  ‘Okay’ you may say ‘she is the Prime Minister and although we don’t have a written constitution (mores the pity) it is usual for the Government to sign treaties’.  Yes, but almost always they have to be ratified by Parliament before passing into Law.  In fact the changes in the Maastricht and Lisbon treaties followed this process with Parliament having the last say.  All we have from the Prime Minister is a desire to both control our borders and to get the best deal possible for trade with the remaining 27 countries of the EU.  Well, just like the song about a horse and carriage and Love and Marriage – “You can’t have one without the other” you cannot have access to the Single Market without Free Movement of People, which according to most pundits was the reason the well-informed (hahaha) public voted for Brexit in the first place.  Complicated or what?

But here I am more concerned with the constitutional situation.  If Mrs. May does trigger Article 50 without the approval of Parliament (which seems probable as we do not know her negotiating position, and besides she says that Parliament will not have a vote anyway) and there is a strict two-year negotiation, at the end of which whether agreement is reached or not we will be out with no recourse to say ‘Hang on a minute’, Parliament will not be able to veto or amend or indeed approve whatever we get at the end of the two years, because it will be too late by then.  So in effect Parliament will not be able to ratify the changes to the treaty we have with the EU, even though all 27 other countries will have to ratify the treaty changes in their own legislatures.  Complicated or what?

It looks more and more likely that we will have, either by our own choice or imposed on us, a ‘Hard Brexit’.  Now, I reluctantly accept that constitutionally if we are to abide by the referendum result we have to leave the EU; but under what terms?  I am sure that many, but we have no way of knowing how many, who voted to Leave did not necessarily want to leave the Single Market, especially as hundreds of thousands of jobs may depend on our remaining in it.  Surely if Parliament has no mechanism to approve or reject or amend the final deal then the British people, under whose Sovereignty Mrs May is now supposedly by-passing Parliament for, must be able to accept or reject that final deal.  However of course the reality is that once Article 50 is triggered nobody, not Parliament nor People nor even Mrs May herself (an unelected PM remember) will have much say, because the remaining 27 nations, provided they stick together, will call all the shots.  “This is what we are prepared to offer you, take it or leave it – the result will be the same anyway”.  Complicated or what?

And then when we are finally out and the ‘Great Repeal of the EU’ Act becomes law, will of course come the lawsuits, Companies denied trade by the Government, Individual’s taxation and health and residency issues and lots more besides….oh happy day.