Sunday 11th October

It is hard for us mere bystanders to appreciate reality from hyperbole.  It seems as though every few days we are confronted by headlines stating that the NHS is in serious danger of collapse.  The current issue is that in just three months the various NHS trusts have run up a deficit of almost one billion pounds.  And this is at a far faster rate than any deficit has been acquired before; the implication is that it is going bankrupt.  There is political row too, as this information has been held back for a few weeks – people were leaned on (a word in your shell-like) so that these figures would not be released until after the Tory party conference.  Well, who knows?  But one would not be surprised.  And whether these deficits are a direct or even indirect result of Tory cuts is another unknown – but they sure as hell haven’t helped.

Before the election all parties promised various huge numbers of billions to prop up the ever-ailing NHS.  I suspect that the voters ignored these promises, knowing the truth – that no amount of money will ever really be enough.  The other truth that nobody dare speak is that if we want to continue with a first class NHS then it will have to paid for, and more money means more taxes.  You cannot continue cutting taxes and give the NHS more money at the same time.   I suspect that despite George Osborne’s promises to eliminate the deficit by 2020, he won’t; the clearing year will continue to slip and just enough money will continue to be found to save the NHS from complete collapse.  The political price would be far too high.  But that doesn’t mean we won’t continue to see crisis after crisis.  Until we properly fund the NHS, either by higher taxes, or some sort of charging system the crises will continue.  And the demographics are against the NHS too.  We are all living longer; more and more once fatal illnesses are treatable; more and more of us are demanding its services.  Cameron wants the NHS to operate over seven days, while allocating the same money; an impossible circle to square….

I just hope there is enough of an NHS left by the time Labour gets back into power.  And I am realistic enough to realise that may be in ten years time.