Thursday 4th September

This may be premature, in fact I could be totally wrong – I usually am.  But I am detecting that the old certainties are receding and a new era may be about to emerge.   Our two party system emerged out of the Civil War, a period of our history we hide away as if we are ashamed that we killed a king and for a while had a Lord Protector and then decided to resurrect the monarchy.  The Tories were the supporters of Royalty and as they evolved into the Conservative Party have always been backward looking.  Even now many of them hark back to days of Empire and no involvement with Europe.  The Whigs were supporters of Parliament and as they became the Liberals they were more forward thinking, more progressive and willing to accept Reform.  At the turn of the last Century a new movement of previously disenfranchised workers formed the Labour Party which soon eclipsed the old corrupt Liberals.  And so things remained more or less.  In the nineteen eighties the Labour Party partially imploded and several right-wingers formed the Social Democrats who later joined forces with the Liberals to create today’s Liberal Democrats.  Then there are the Nationalist Parties who have taken votes away from the two mainstream parties.

Now we have UKIP, notionally even more right wing than the Tories, but somehow in their simplistic message of anti-immigration and withdrawal from Europe have struck a chord with both working class and many former Tory voters.  For a while I thought that their flag would not fly, but flap around the flagpole for a while and then be hauled down in defeat.  I was wrong and they are flying high now.  But the most significant change is the gradual seepage of support for the two main parties.  Harold Wilson got over 50% of the vote in the sixties, Tony Blair won in 1997 with 42% and now Labour are on 36% and still could possibly form the next Government.  But far more likely I feel is that UKIP will pick up at least a quarter of the votes, and will in some places break through and have a number of M.P.s in 2015.  How many is anyone’s guess.  The LibDems will hang on to maybe 40 seats and the Tories will lose a few, but Labour will pick up less than they had hoped for.  Another coalition is on the offing.  Surely the LibDems will never go back with the Tories, there is no appetite for that in the party as a whole.  So will it be Tory/UKIP or Lib/Lab next time.  Or maybe a rainbow coalition with (presuming the Scots do not vote for Independence) Labour LibDems and Nationalists joining together.  We will just have to wait and see.