The Ceasefire in Ukraine

Sunday 7th September

The West has been completely outmaneuvered by president Putin.  Despite all the denials it is pretty obvious that Russian troops and equipment are being used almost openly in Eastern Ukraine.  What is less known is that the whole crisis has been engineered by the West, America in particular.  The idea was that Ukraine would be wooed away from Russian influence and into the EU.  The Orange revolution of a few years ago was promoted by us and hailed as a great breaking free from Russia.  Unfortunately the demographics of the Ukraine are quite complicated with roughly a third of the population speaking Russian and considering themselves as more Russian than Ukrainian.  Then the politicians elected were found to be corrupt and a new pro-Russian president was elected, who is still under international law the rightful president.  The CIA funded a rebellion in Kiev and this pro-Russian president was forced to flee.  Then troops suddenly appeared in the Crimea and in no time this was annexed by Russia, no doubt illegally but it seems the local population were overjoyed to be Russian again.  Then in the East of the country pro-Russian rebels started fighting too.  The Ukraine government’s response was to ask the West for help.  However we might have been prepared to foment anti-Russian feeling but we were not ready to send troops to fight the Ruskies.

Anyway a new president (legal or illegal – take your choice) was elected – though no votes were allowed in Crimea and several Eastern areas.  The new strong man Petro Poreshenko declared he would rid the country of Russian dissidents.  After a short while he started losing and was in headlong retreat when Putin, sensibly called for a cease-fire.  The Ukrainians had no choice, they were caught between a better fighting force and a weak West which had encouraged them but had blinked when real help was needed.  Putin will now sit down to talks, not only to end the fighting but to give whatever degree of independence to the East of the country.  Every one will eventually agree and the silly sanctions against Russia will be dropped.

Or nothing will be agreed and fighting will resume.  Whatever happens Russia will probably win.