Monday 17th March

Well we already knew the result – long before a single Crimean resident had voted.  And it was a Masterstroke.   A bit too rushed, but really this has been the pattern along.  There hasn’t been any time for Diplomacy, for talking, for compromise.

But who started the whole thing.  The Orange Revolution was largely engineered by the West.  If you can believe the conspiracy theorists it was CIA backed.  Who knows?  And there is obviously a large proportion of Ukraines population who want to be part of Europe, who see the West as the future and Russia as the past.  But there is also a large proportion, mainly in the East who seek safety and security in Russia.   Everyone proclaims that Ukraine should remain intact, that it shouldn’t split, but I think it is now inevitable.  America doesn’t like it at all.  But Russia doesn’t like the moves towards Europe either.

And now the Masterstroke has been accomplished.  A referendum that everyone except Russia says is illegal has taken place.  We know the result already.  The population there will overwhelmingly vote to join Russia.  And I don’t think anyone will be able to stop them.

And what do we in the West really believe in?  Certainly not Democracy.  We support Saudi Arabia, where the country is run by a few rich families, we support an Egyptian Army which has illegally deposed a legally elected President and banned his party and arrested most of its leaders.  We supported Ukraine until its legally elected President favoured Russia over us.  And then we supported the mob who orchestrated his downfall and the hastily ‘elected’ new President.  We have declared illegal the very idea of a referendum in Crimea.  We will undoubtedly not recognize the result.  But why ever not?  I have no love for Russia, especially under Putin, but I do love Democracy.  And as the overwhelming desire of the people of Crimea is to be Russian I respect that.   Of course whatever happens next it will just get worse.  Other regions of Ukraine will demand referenda too.  The West is on a loser whatever we do.  So too maybe Russia, but no matter how many sanctions we impose they will surely still be a great world power which we will sooner or later have to do business with again.  This is a new type of war and one we cannot possibly win; it is War by referendum.  Fait Accompli.