Wednesday 6th November

We have an almost unprecedented situation where all three major parties are unpopular.  Labour because it is perceived, possibly unfairly, for having created the recession; the Tories for still being the nasty party, despite Cameron’s attempt to reform his party the effects of the benefit changes are slowly being felt; and the Libdems because they went into Coalition with the Tories, the very party many voted against.

The opinion polls don’t really help us either, as they are frankly all over the place, sometimes only a 3% Labour lead and sometimes back to 10%.  The only sure thing is that the LibDems are losing support, although their reckoning is that they will still retain strength in their sitting MPs seats, and enough will survive to vie for Coalition again.  A strange message – vote for us, and we will not win but may be kingmakers again.  Recent history says that a party in Government does not increase its share of the vote at the subsequent election, but that is not a law by any means.  Recent history also says that a party cannot recover from such a defeat as Labour suffered in one election.  And then there is UKIP, which may be a bubble which bursts, or then again it could actually become a credible fourth party, which if it doesn’t actually win any seats may take enough votes from both parties, but mainly the Tories to affect the result in some seats.

It will probably come down to which party seems most credible at the time of the election, or makes fewer blunders.  You never know how the media will play things either.  One suspects that Murdoch’s Sun will come round and support the Tories as will the Mail, Express, and Telegraph, although the Times may be more balanced.  Labour will undoubtedly recover from 2010, but how much is anyone’s guess.  The LibDems will sink and again no-one knows by how much.  The Tories will probably hang on to the same share of the vote but will be unlikely to increase despite a recovering economy.  There is also no knowing how much the public will have tired of Cameron and Clegg, or if Milliband can somehow make people like him.  The only politician who is actually liked is Farrage.  So we really are in unchartered territory.