Monday 24th November

Everyone keeps thinking that UKIP will implode, that somehow their bubble will burst.  But they, in fact all of us, are wrong.  It is now only 5 months until the General Election and they are now a force to be reckoned with.  It may well be that their vote might drop a little under the intense media scrutiny in May, but I don’t think it will change that much.  It may be less thoughtful people voting for them, or those who have rejected all the others.  it matters not, they will still get around 15% (or more) of the vote.  Both Labour and the Tories have lost voters, but not as many as the LibDems.  It is almost impossible to tell what has really happened.  It is quite possible that there has been quite a lot of movement.  Where have the LibDem voters gone?  Mostly I suspect to Labour, but a few to the Tories.  Labour are losing to the SNP in Scotland and to UKIP in some northern cities, but again they may actually have gained some votes back from the Tories.  The Tories are losing mostly to UKIP.  And suddenly coming up on the rails are the Greens, possibly disaffected Labour or LibDem voters.

So, it is all a huge muddle and I suspect there will be no uniform swing at all, and not a few unforeseen results.  Another coalition looks very likely.  Maybe Tory, UKIP.  But more likely Labour, SNP and LibDems.  At least that way we might save ourselves from leaving Europe.  But the chances of a new election in two years time are very real indeed.