The Real Danger

Sunday 6th May

Forget North Korea, forget Russia, Forget Syria and forget Ukraine.  None of these will bring us to a third World War.  Or even another serious conflict.  Kim Il Jung, who is emerging out of the cartoon figure the West painted him as, into an intelligent man full of diplomatic skills.  He has long realised that his country needs to come in from the cold.  It is the only remaining ‘Communist’ country in the World and needs to change.  It is down to him and the South Korean leadership that the ice has been broken.  Donald Trump is merely a by-stander, frantically waving his arms on the side-lines while the real action has managed to exclude him completely.  Russia under Putin is cautious and a supreme chess player, he won’t risk War either; he will continue to push and probe, trying to increase Russia’s influence slowly but he will not risk War.  Syria will continue and will be in a sorry state for many years, but Assad will prevail in the end.

But the real danger is two-fold and it all relies on Iran.  There is an internal battle going on there, between the hard-liners who want a war against the West and the moderates who have managed to negotiate the deal.  Iran has stopped its nuclear programme (or put it on ice) at least, according to the international observers.  But Trump is threatening to break the deal and re-impose sanctions.  That could and may well end in tears.  The hard-liners may start to win and not only re-start the nuclear programme but get even more involved in Syria and Yemen.  Their absolute hatred of the Sunni Saudis (they are Shia) is already causing huge suffering in the never-ending battles in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.  But….

The real danger is Israel, or rather the policies of Benjamin Netanyahu.  His hatred if Iran knows no bounds.  He is quite capable of starting a war with them.  And that would bring in America and possibly Russia.  Also, the hypocrisy of Netanyahu, who undoubtedly has nuclear weapons and refuses to let the international inspectors into Israel, (and of course America and the UK sit on their hands whenever the UN criticises this nonsense), and yet is outraged by the very idea that Iran might be inching towards their own nuclear weapons.

And Trump seems to be completely in agreement with Netanyahu.  The only long-term solution to the Middle East is for everyone to stop hating and start talking.  Fat chance of that happening.  Quite the reverse, in fact the dangers of a new war are getting closer as each day passes