Thursday 14th July

Well possibly not, but there is no doubting the serious situation which the Labour party finds itself in.  Strange that the Conservatives, who until a few weeks ago were tearing themselves apart over Europe, are now united and with a new Leader and pursuing a policy of disengaging with Europe which they don’t really believe in, have jettisoned their 6 year policy of Austerity and eliminating the deficit and are even pursuing policies first outlined by ‘Red Ed’ of the Labour Party.  Labour however, who were fairly united in opposing Brexit are now tearing themselves apart because they have a leader, who may be reflecting the views of the bulk of the party members but is ridiculed by the Media, disowned by most of his M.P.s and being challenged (probably unsuccessfully) by two of them.  Rumours are rife that this will split Labour, with the M.P.s, either being de-selected or going off to form their own party (as the SDP did 35 years ago).

I really don’t know how this will pan out.  I blame all sides for the state we are in.  Firstly those from the right of the party should not have refused to serve in the Shadow Cabinet in the first place; I am sure that Andy Burnham has as many reservations as some of them but he has stayed to try and save the party.  Secondly, Jeremy should not have made John McDonell his Shadow Chancellor, he really isn’t convincing on any level.  He should also have sought a consensus set of policies under which the whole party could have felt comfortable with.  Hilary Benn and the others who walked out of the Shadow Cabinet, on the excuse that Jeremy did not campaign effectively for Remain are guilty of planning a coup, where they hoped to force Jeremy to resign.  This, plus the vote of no-confidence and Angela Eagle’s challenge have only served to discredit the party further.  And Jeremy’s reported intransigence and refusal to hold talks with his opponents has only added to the problem.

We now have a new Leadership contest, which will not solve anything.  Whoever wins, either the M.P.s or the Membership will feel betrayed.  And when we lose the 2020 election, which is almost inevitable now, each side will blame the other – that is if they are still in the same party anyway.  UKIP will be rubbing their hands and will make substantial gains, especially as the Brexit discussions will get bogged down over the question of free movement of people.

Labour will probably hang on to around 200 seats (maybe less).  It may take another ten years after that for them to sort themselves out.  The economy may be in free-fall, the NHS practically gone, but the Conservatives will sail on, holed below the waterline maybe, but with no effective opposition.  But of course, I could be wrong….I usually am.