The Next U.S. President – Oh Dear…

Friday 12th February

Every four years the Americans start a precedent…hahaha.  But this year it is no joke at all.  In fact the pack is full of jokers and it looks like one of them may actually win.  One of the best things about the American system is the statute of limitations, where a president can only rule for two terms, eight years.  If only we had had that over here as Thatcher and Blair both began to think they were invincible after a few years.  But, in the name of Democracy, in America they have each state holding Primaries or Caucuses where delegates are elected to vote for (roughly in proportion) candidates who received the biggest support.  And in this way the best candidate is supposed to emerge.  However, as to even be in the ‘race’ you either need to be a multi-millionaire or have very rich backers it is hardly Democratic.

And because of a growing dissatisfaction with the political stalemate in Washington and the belief that it is the Corporations that are really running everything there is a general mistrust of Washington ‘insiders’.  Obama was elected eight years ago on a wave of dissatisfaction and a promise of real change “Yes we can”.  Well, sadly he couldn’t.  And despite or possibly because of his failure there is an even larger appetite for real change in America.  And so we have the ‘safe’ pair of Hilary and Jeb Bush being sidelined and mavericks leading the pack.  I have nothing against Bernie Sanders, indeed I like a lot of what he is saying – but the guy is 74 already and has actually achieved very little so far.  And my biggest fear is that despite the enthusiasm of his young team he well be no match for Trump (incidentally I have much the same fears for Labour under Jeremy Corbyn).

And so we come to Donald Trump.  And though it is far too easy to ridicule him (after all he is almost a cartoon figure already) we must be very careful not to underestimate him or his message (we all did that with Reagan).  What appears as ludicrous to modern Europeans is exactly what a huge number of stupid Americans just love to hear.  An ultra-nationalist and xenophobic bigot he may be but, just like Nigel Farage over here, a lot of people think that he is only saying what everyone else is thinking and love him for it.

And so if things continue as they stand now, we will have the spectre of the most right-wing populist Billionaire contending against a valiant genial left-winger who already looks past it.  I shudder to think what will happen.  Our only saviour would be Hilary (or possibly Jeb Bush coming from behind to beat Trump) and boy does she come with some baggage of her own.  Oh well, at least America doesn’t have nuclear weapons….oooops.