Tuesday 9th September

Well, the fat is really in the fire now, isn’t it.  The latest opinion poll puts the Yes campaign just ahead of the No’s.  This may well be a rogue poll, but it has caused panic and real fear amongst those wishing to keep the United Kingdom together.   I don’t think the Establishment has really thought through the possibility of a Yes vote.  For Scotland, or more importantly, for us.  It is going to be chaotic, especially in the first few days following the vote.  There could well be a run on the pound, and this long before the question of whose pound it is comes to be decided.  There is a strong likelihood that Cameron’s position will be under threat from within the Tory party; M.P.s already worried that with Cameron and Osborne at the helm, the Tories cannot win the next election.  And what greater failure for a Prime Minister than to oversee the breakup of the country?  There could be more defections to UKIP.  But Labour is just as much at risk.  Ed Milliband has hardly inspired the nation, and Labour without Scotland would struggle to ever win in England, unless under a pseudo-Tory like Blair.   There could well be a move to replace Ed before the next election, but I do not see anyone really succeeding in his place.  The LibDems are no safer; as the third or rather now fourth party they are being squeezed at every successive election.  Clegg could also be under threat; he has almost single handedly ruined the party, by joining a Tory coalition.  The party conferences will be highly interesting.  It could come down to who keeps their nerve best.

In the long run, I imagine there will firstly be an argument about the timetable for independence, the SNP arguing for a short six months or so, and the old rump UK arguing for five years to disentangle all the joint bodies that administer everything.

Whatever happens it is looking very likely that Alex Salmond will walk away triumphant.  If he loses but comes close he will demand Devo-Max or another referendum in a few years time; in any case all parties are falling over themselves to grant Devo-Max, so in a way if he loses he wins.  And if he wins, well – he wins.