Thursday 8th June

I have lived through too many Elections to take anything for granted.  Addicted as I am to reading, and reading into, Opinion polls – I know that they are at best a snapshot of a moving picture, and at worst a harbinger of hopes dashed.

Snapshot 1 – 1992.  Neil Kinnock had struggled against Thatcher in 1987, though he did reduce her majority a bit.  And in those days it wasn’t, as it seems now almost obligatory, for a defeated Leader to fall on their sword.  Harold Wilson had stayed on as Labour leader, losing in 1970 to return victorious in ’74.  So Kinnock stayed on and seemed on course against the seemingly dull and hopeless John Major, who had surprisingly beaten Heseltine in the War of the Thatcher Succession.  All the polls were indicating a Labour Victory.  We were 7 or 8 points ahead of the Tories.  And yet we lost.  Some say it was the triumphalist final Sheffield rally, but I suspect that it was that phenomenon we have come to know as shy or guilty Tories; people who profess to be undecided or even tell pollsters they are Labour but who secretly like the tax-cuts which may benefit them at the expense of others.  Who knows?

Snapshot 2 – 1997.  Five years later and the polls were all showing a landslide for Labour under the new management of Blair and Brown.  But somehow we couldn’t allow ourselves to believe it.  Our hopes had been dashed too many times before.  Could we dare to believe the polls this time.  As it happened they were spot on this time and Blair had a hundred seat majority.

Snapshot 3 – 2015.  Milliband now in charge of Labour, and though they were just behind the Tories, it was generally accepted that they would be in Coalition with the SNP.  Newspapers on the day were prediciting this result.  Then the shock, as the SNP almost cleaned up completely in Scotland but Labour lost seats in England where they should have won.  Was it shy Tories again, or possibly the fear tactics from the Tories of the Jocks pulling the strings of Milliband.  The Tories won again.

Snapshot 4 – 2017.  Theresa May has run a disastrous campaign and Labour’s polling has risen from 25 to 40%.  But…..the Tories are still mostly in the low or mid forty percents.  On average a gap of 6 or 7 points.  Enough to give her a majority.  YouGov had predicted she will get around 310 seats and lose her majority.  But how much of this is wishful thinking?  The pollsters say they have changed their methodology to take account of the shy Tories, but I am still unsure.  Two scenarios – One a victorious May with approaching a hundred seat majority, and Two a celebrating mob as Jeremy stops her, or at least means she will be running a minority government…..