Thursday 1st February
Well, even Jeremy cannot go on forever – but he may surprise us all by his longevity. After all he was the first Leader for ages who didn’t resign after not winning a General Election; I think you have to go back to Neil Kinnock. Everything depends on how well, or badly Labour perform at the next General Election, and when that will be. If it comes after a crisis in the Tory Party or a lost vote of confidence in the Commons then Labour may well win, but if Mrs. May can survive until 2022 (a big if) and she somehow pulls a half-decent rabbit out of the Brexit hat then who knows, – she really needs a Falklands war I suppose.
But if Labour start slipping in the polls and Jeremy decides to step down before the next election? Well, it looks almost like a shoo-in for Emily Thornberry. She has handled her brief well, is a steady and good TV performer and a head-to-head with Mrs. May would be interesting to say the least (handbags at dawn?).
But if Labour do badly at the next election and Jeremy is persuaded to go then anything could happen. Clive Lewis has managed to get back into a shadow ministerial role and may have a chance. I would like to think that Keir Starmer was a possibility but he may well be far too sensible for the current Labour Party. Almost anyone who served under Blair or Brown is tainted. There are a few new faces too – Rebecca Long-Bailey is mentioned, as is Debbie Abrahams – but the general public hardly know them, which actually could be a good thing.
My suspicion is that Jeremy will stay ‘in post’ after the next election, unless Labour do really badly, and in five or six years Emily Thornberry will take over. But I have been wrong about almost every election and referendum for the last few years, so what do I know.