Wednesday 4th September

I have always loved Opinion Polls; in fact any sort of survey, along with associated pie charts, intrigues me.  But it is essentially Political Opinion Polls that interest me.  Almost daily I check in to a website called UK Opinion Polling, which not only lists each new poll, but does a fair bit of analysis, and gives a running average.  Amazingly, despite what are termed ‘rogue polls’ the average has remained consistent for two years now.  This doesn’t stop my interest, if anything it heightens it.

What intrigues me is the research that goes into polling.  Also I am amazed that neither myself, nor anyone I have ever asked, has been questioned ever for a poll.  It is mostly done by telephone these days, which in my mind must give a slightly different result than face to face interviews.  Maybe the anonymity of speaking on the phone produces a more honest answer than actually talking to someone.

On any given day, but especially on Sundays the results of several polls may be published.  I love comparing them.  Is it just the magic of numbers or the possible politics that excites me?  One thing I have noticed over the years is that despite hiccups and gaffes and temporary unpopularity the actual campaign has little effect on the eventual result.  Except for the amazing surge in popularity for Clegg after the first TV debate which settled down anyway before the actual vote, the state of the parties two to three months away from the election is generally the result achieved on the day.

Which gives me hope; Labour has been consistently six or seven points ahead for at least two years.  The Tories will hope that this is simply mid-term unpopularity, but I think that most people have made their minds up.  People generally like the Labour party, but disliked Brown and are unsure of Milliband.  The Tories have the reverse problem that people quite warm to Cameron, but dislike the party he leads.  And then there is Nigel Farage, who is unlikely to ever win, or even be part of a coalition, but exudes such goodwill that his party may end up polling well enough to even win a few seats or at least to deny the Tories success in certain marginal seats.

Of course, anything can happen in politics, and usually does.  And every poll ends up being wrong, even those taken on the eve of the actual election.  But none of that stops me from reading them anyway.