Tuesday 11th November

Europe has come thundering back as one of, if not the, most important of election issues.  UKIP of course have been pushing this one policy up the Agenda relentlessly, and the Tories are just as split as they always have been.  Cameron thought that he had stolen both a march on and in fact most of UKIP’s clothes by declaring that he would allow the public an in/out vote on Europe, which at the time he kicked suitably into the long grass of 2017.  That is of course just around the corner and even if he is re-elected gives precious little time for either a renegotiation or more importantly for trying to win the argument.  As things stand I am fairly certain that a NO vote would win and for that if for no other reason people would be foolish to vote Tory.  Nick Clegg, weak though he, is has resolutely remained pro-Europe.  Ed Milliband has at last come out fighting and wants us to stay in.

And now Nicola Sturgeon has stuck the knife in too.  Her argument is that every part of the UK must vote No in order for us to leave.  This is very clever politics, much like the amendment to the first devolution vote in 1979 (stating that over 50% of the electorate, not just those voting must vote yes to instigate a change) that brought down Callaghan.  She says she will table an amendment to any referendum vote to state that over 50% of the voters in any of the four constituent parts of the UK must all vote NO in order for us leave.  Whether she will be successful is of course impossible to say, but as the house stands at the moment the Tories alone (and one UKIP) stand for quitting Europe, all the other parties are against us leaving.  And actually even if she fails, she will have made her point, and should there be an eventual vote to exit which Scotland does not support she will call again for Scottish Independence.  Clever girl.