Monday 11th July
The dust is just beginning to settle on a transformed Political landscape. Gone are many certainties and gone are many of the leading characters. All that is left is a dusty windswept stage with a few tattered side curtains blowing gently in the breeze created by the vacuum. The result of the Referendum came not only as a shock but with the startling revelation that nobody at all has a plan, least of all the Brexiteers, who may be as surprised as the rest of us that they actually won.
We will shortly be in the middle of at least three leadership elections. Angela Eagle has promised that she will shortly (maybe today) be formally challenging Jeremy Corbyn for the Labour Party leadership. I really have no idea at the moment how she will fare. On paper Jeremy won with a very large mandate, though how many of those will continue to support him remains to be seen. He has been inconsistent; at times brilliant and at others stumbling and reminding us of the worst days of Michael Foot. The fact that he can barely form a shadow cabinet and will likely face a major revolt over the renewal of Trident and has lost the confidence of most of his M.P.s make him look ridiculous – but on the other hand the zealotry of many of his supporters means he may still beat Angela. I am torn, like many Labour supporters. I like the ideals of Jeremy, but know that actually winning elections is more than just presenting a bouquet of promises to the electorate; you have to have a realistic chance of winning. I am not at all sure that Angela Eagle would win in 2020, but am pretty sure that Jeremy will not.
The Conservatives have a choice between two women, and again on paper Theresa May should win easily, but the Tory party members are far more right-wing than most of the M.P.s and are predominantly anti-Europe. Andrea Leadsom has echoes of Thatcher which might attract them. Both ladies promise to be tough in negotiations with Europe, but the reality is that you can be tough as you like, the clock once it is ticking will be on Europe’s side, “Here is the deal – take it or leave it, oh and by the way is that the time?”
Ukip will be electing a new leader too, and if they really want to be a force in Politics rather than a single issue party, just like the SNP in Scotland they will have to really decide on their policies; are they going to aim right of the Tories of even left of Labour (as the SNP did).
An interesting few months ahead; the country already looks like it is slipping into poor if not negative growth; will the Tories abandon Austerity and raise taxes (watch out for a rise of at least 1% in VAT); will Labour move back to the Centre, wherever that is now, or continue veering Left; will UKIP support or attack a deal with Europe and will the LibDems begin to recover lost ground under Tim Farron?
As your very own Political Oracle I really have no idea, and if I don’t know what hope is there for anyof us…..hahaha