Friday 26th January
Theresa May is fond of repeating this mantra “No deal is better than a bad deal” – but what does it really mean. The problem is that this is nonsense. If a deal is agreed then it must be better than not agreeing a deal. And the whole concept of whether a deal is a good deal or a bad deal is completely subjective. Apparently though 65% of Conservative MPs think that “No deal is better than a bad deal”. This is because that party is completely split about what constitutes either a good or a bad deal.
For the Mad Brexiteers any future contact with the EU or any of it’s constituent parts is anathema; just why I have never understood but they hate Europe so much that even a transition period of less than 2 years while arrangements are made for the future (whatever that will be) under existing conditions is a bad deal – let alone whatever may follow. For the Remainers remaining either a member of, or having access to, the Single market (with or without {and it will be with} having to accept free movement and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and some payments – in other words the Norway option) would be a good deal – and anything less a bad deal.
But whatever deal is eventually agreed upon must be better than no deal. Because no deal means that on 1st April 2019 the UK will no longer be a member of the EU and will not have a trade deal of any sort – we will be, as they say, a third country. “Oh that’s okay” the Brexiteers say, “We will fall back on WTO rules (tariffs and all)”. Well actually, No. We will be able to begin the process of seeking accreditation to trade with the EU, and by the way every other country in the World (because until then we trade as part of the accredited EU) and this will take months if not years. And even when we get accreditation we will have to pay tariffs and be subject to border checks and paperwork. Imagine lorries queueing either side of the channel for days and a huge recruitment campaign for border officials and you won’t be far out. But that hiatus, that cliff edge, of a “No deal” scenario will mean that our car industry will close down as it needs a constant supply of parts from Europe (we basically bolt bits together), all our banks and financial institutions will move to Paris or Hamburg, hundreds of thousands will lose their jobs overnight.
This was all obvious at the time of the referendum; I just can’t understand why Mrs. May keeps repeating this drivel (Europe is not impressed by it), or just why so many idiots in her party think she is right….