Friday 20th January

So, Theresa May has spoken.  A long and fairly detailed speech as it transpired, but actually quite short on real detail.  And fine though her words, especially of co-operation and goodwill to the EU, were; they are simply aspirations.  There is no guarantee that they will be translated into reality when negotiations begin and in fact there is every likelihood that something, or maybe a whole raft of things will go wrong.

As predicted the sticking point is the Single Market.  If we want to sell goods freely and without any restrictions we will have to accept free movement of people.  Mrs. May seems to think that it is her destiny to obey the obvious xenophobia of a small majority of British people and at least attempt, if only on paper, to restrict immigration to the UK; therefore she has decided that we MUST leave the Single Market.  Also because she wants to be able to strike trade deals with other nations we will have to leave the Customs Union.  But she is also certain that she will be able to negotiate a new trade deal and a new Customs Union with the EU during the negotiations themselves, which will still allow us to make deals on our own.  Also she wants access to the Single Market without accepting immigrants.

Three points spring to mind.  I may be pedantic but as we are still a member of the Customs Union, and will be until we actually leave the EU, we are forbidden by that to negotiate ANY trade deals on our own.  Does that not preclude us from even beginning any negotiation for a trade deal before we leave the EU, even with the EU itself (minus us), while we are still in the Customs Union?

Secondly, if we have access to the Single Market we will certainly be treated as though we were still in the EU, accepting free movement of people and all the EU rules without having a say on those rules.  We will also have to contribute; how much is up for grabs.  If we leave the Single Market and wish to trade with Europe we will almost certainly have to accept tariffs at a minimum of 10% and in some cases higher but will not have to accept free movement.  We will also have to accept all the rules and regulations currently and in the future which the EU wishes to impose on imported goods.

But….thirdly.  Mrs. May has said that we will still accept the brightest and best immigrants (who is to decide this?) even from Europe after we have left.  David Davis in the Commons shortly after also assured MPs that where there were shortages of labour we would also accept EU migrants.  So…..

What the hell was the point of leaving anyway…

PS…any new trade deals with US/Australia/China or anyone else will not only be difficult but will inevitably mean more immigrants from those countries.   The only change will be that we will be obliged to set up a huge bureaucracy to administer these EU and other immigrants.  Numbers will only go down when the UK is no longer an economic destination, which incidentally, if as predicted we suffer economically by leaving the EU, will not exactly be the best result.  But hey, at least we will get rid of the f….king foreigners….hahaha