Sunday 12th July

Well the roller-coaster ride is almost over and the car seems to have just avoided coming off the rails, whether it will glide to a smooth halt or continue for a few more loops is still debatable.  I think we are at the stage where everyone just wants to save face.  No-one wants Greece to exit the Euro because it will not only destabilize the whole Eurozone and no-one knows where that will end, but also the fear of contagion or rather the unraveling of the Eurozone is strong.  It is quite possible that whichever way the Greeks go then sooner or later others may follow.

The Creditors are still insisting that the Greek debts must be repaid, or most of them; because otherwise Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland will want to renegotiate their own large debts.  But on top of all of this the situation is simply getting worse and worse.  The Greek banks (nothing to do with the Greek people and all to do with reckless lending in former years) are in real trouble and by next week will run out of money.  There is a burgeoning humanitarian crisis looming unless the banks are rescued; many Greek people will lose all their savings and the rest of Europe will be forced to help them.  It will probably be cheaper to lend them some more money now.

And it doesn’t end there, almost every country in Europe and of course America has huge debts.  If a country, even a small one like Greece, defaults and in effect devalues their currency and writes off huge chunks of their debt then others may follow.  Or be forced to; there is no shortage of Financial dealers prepared to screw a whole country as long as there is a profit in it.  We could even be facing another global financial crisis, because all we did after the last one was to shore up the banks and borrow more money.  So a Greek deal is in everyone’s interest, it is just that no-one wants to admit defeat and this will probably go to and maybe even beyond the wire.  And what no-one has really thought about is the Greek people, who, if this deal is not done, may well have had enough.  They have nothing left to lose and not only civil unrest but a full-blown revolution could be just down the line.  You can only push people so far.  What foolish commentator said that with the fall of the Soviet Union history was over.