Bi-Elections Are Funny Things

Saturday 11th October

As widely predicted UKIP won last night in Clacton and Labour hung on in Heywood and Middleton.  But what do bi-elections really tell us apart from the “Let’s Kick Whoever Holds The Seat.”  There are often spectacular over-turnings of huge majorities at bi-elections only to see (without the accompanying fanfare) the seat return to its old party at the General election.  Only the Lib-Dems seem to have been able to hold onto bi-election victories.  And there is also the factor that after all – a bi-election isn’t going to change anything.  A vote for Lib-Dem or Greens or UKIP doesn’t matter; they aren’t going to be running the country tomorrow.  The whole thing is hyped up by the Media who love an upset, a political earthquake or just anything to relieve the boredom of politics as usual.

So, this bi-election, let’s look more closely at it.  Clacton had the sitting MP defecting and standing again for UKIP, he won with 60% of the vote.  The Tories went from 55% down to 24%.  Labour only got 24% down from about 30% last time, the Libdems came nowhere.  So, quite clear-cut – a big swing from Tory to UKIP.  Heywood and Middleton was a bit different.  Firstly a low turnout of only 36%.  Labour held the seat with almost exactly the same share of the vote; 40% as in 2010.  But the opposition was routed; Tories down to 12% from 32%, LibDems nowhere.  Ukip managed to mop up all the anti Labour vote and came close with 39%.

So, what does this tell us?  Hard to say really.  Clacton may well stay UKIP at General Election but could just slip back to the Tories.  Labour will probably hold on to Heywood.  The trouble is that nobody quite knows what the UKIP effect will be in 2015.  In Polls they are achieving around 17% or so.  Assuming that they get at least that figure they may well pick up a few seats here and there but it is where they come second that may affect things.  With essentially a four (or even five) party system an M. P. may be elected on 30% or less of the vote.  We all expect the LibDem vote to collapse, except where they have a popular sitting M.P. but where that vote goes could be interesting.  I suspect that a lot of their old voters may well vote Labour, who in their turn will lose some to UKIP, though maybe not as many as the Tories.

My prediction – another hung parliament.  Labour the biggest party (just) and a coalition of Labour, Lib-Dem and maybe SNP (because they will do well in Scotland).  The Tories will lose maybe 40 seats and UKIP win up to 10.  The Greens may well pick up a couple more too.  So, interesting times ahead.

Political Awareness

Friday 10th October

I should have been heading to Walton yesterday, partly to vote in the Clacton bi-election, but today I am heading North to see my son and his family.  Not that my vote for Labour would make much difference; this is a battle between Douglas Carswell, who until a month ago was a Tory and is now UKIP, and the new Tory candidate Giles Watling.  Not that Clacton is a typical Tory seat, quite the opposite in many ways.  There are a few outlying villages with pretty bungalows which would be natural Tory territory.  There is also a huge pool of unemployed or lowly paid in Clacton and Jaywick which should be Labour.  However these are people who rarely vote as they see Labour making no real difference to their lives – and maybe they are right.

However what UKIP has done and very successfully too, is to inspire politically unaware people who maybe have barely thought about politics before that they can indeed make a difference.  Unfortunately UKIP are not the answer.  They are simply the unbridled right-wing of the Tory party.  And if you think that the Tories are bad, just wait till this lot gets in.  And get in they may well do, undoubtedly as a minor party making up a coalition with the Tories.   Their message is simple and clever.  Get out of Europe and kick out the immigrants.  And that is a coded message to all the closet racists – “We don’t like black and brown people, or those speaking Polish as a first language etc.”

A nod and a wink to a blind horse, because the majority of people they are appealing to are politically unaware.  In fact the vast majority of the population is politically unaware; most vote the way their family or community has always done.  And maybe that old dumb loyalty is breaking down.  Unfortunately I don’t think things will change.  People will still be influenced by Press Headlines and will not stop and listen and think about what they really want from our politicians.  Oh, and the politicians too have to step up and stop talking in sound-bites.  Too late I am afraid for that.

God Only Knows

Thursday 9th October

It was 1966 and I was 15 and precocious.  No, I mean really precocious – not like now, just a bit precocious.  I was into Art, drawing and painting, and even then I was writing.  Poems mostly, and quite nasty ones; me against the World.  And I was also in love with music.  I had worshipped the Beatles and all that came along with them; each new group and record seeming to top the last.  I can remember quite clearly having written a few days earlier a poem with the words “God Only Knows” in them; possibly God Only Knows How Serious/Brilliant/Persecuted I Am, or something along those lines.

And then I couldn’t believe it I heard the Beach Boys new single.  I had loved California Girls and Sloop John B and cannot remember if this was before Good Vibrations or not – but I was definitely a fan.  And my immediate thought was – Shit, they’ve stolen my words.  I eventually forgave them and learnt to love the song.

Last night (Tuesday) at 8.00 in the evening with absolutely no warning and what I thought was just an ad for some classical series the BBC launched their star-studded version of “God Only Knows”.  What a revelation, a brilliant interpretation, and such a wonderful video using all sorts of CGI in such a pleasant way.  It was the same format they used for “A Perfect Day” a few years ago.  I sat spellbound and tried to recognize the fantastic array of artists.  Elton, Stevie, Chris, Kylie, Jake Bugg, One Direction and of course Brian Wilson himself (among many others).

Just superb.  Well done the BBC.  You cannot imagine anyone else doing it.

 

It’s All Very Well Complaining Now

Wednesday 8th October

What did the Lib-Dems really expect, back in 2010.  Did they really think that an electorate which voted for them largely because they weren’t what was then seen as Labour failure and certainly were far more left-wing then the Tories, would be ecstatic at the thought that they would be part of a coalition which would largely drive a Conservative agenda through the house of Commons.  In a way we should have got the Government we deserved; Labour were rejected because the economic downturn happened on their watch and because they had been in power for thirteen years and because Gordon wasn’t Tony.  But the Tories did not win an overall majority.  We should have therefore had a minority Tory Government seeking widespread consensus and only bringing in legislation which had broad support.  It was certainly not a mandate for semi-privatisation of the NHS, for a radical rolling out of so-called “Free” schools, for a tripling of tuition fees, for savage cuts to benefits, for the bedroom tax, for tax cuts for the wealthiest and for a glib self-satisfaction that this was how the economy was made to succeed (whereas in reality we limped along for years and eventually things got a bit better despite Government policy rather than because of it).

And all of this was facilitated by the Lib-Dems, who in their mad dash for glory after a century out of Government rolled over for their tummies to be rubbed but instead have been well and truly kicked in the goollies.  The Tories cleverly locked them in for five years, and even more cleverly have managed to take credit for the few good bits the Lib-Dems brought to the party.

And now at their conference they are attacking the nasty Tories at every turn.  Well guys, it just doesn’t add up.  They have been allowed to be nasty because you supported their meanness, they have almost ruined the NHS because you let them, and on and on.  And co-incidentally Clegg and co. have ruined their parties’ credibility and electoral chances into the bargain.  So, it is all very well complaining now – where you for the last five years?

Nick Clegg Warned Defence

The McCann Tragedy Continues

Tuesday 7th October

Whether you think that the McCann’s were simply guilty of neglect on leaving their three young children alone or indeed guilty of a much more evil crime, one cannot help but be amazed at how the tragedy continues to unfold.  On Thursday I think it was I watched Sky news as one of their reporters confronted a woman who they accused of being an internet troll.  This woman, under the hashtag “@Sweepyface” had apparently posted awful tweets about the McCann’s.  What amazed me was her first response, “I am entitled to my opinion”.  And actually, of course so we all are.  We pride ourselves as a society on free speech, though actually that is quite curtailed.  You may not incite race or gender hatred and you cannot be seen to support or aid so-called terrorists, and now the internet, which was supposed to be an area of complete free speech is also being controlled. But arguments about Civil Liberty versus Human Rights can be left for another day.  I was struck by this woman’s sense of righteous indignation that anyone should think her comments even inappropriate.

Well now it appears she has taken her own life (presumably pursued by a voracious media or just simply realizing her own guilt); another pointless waste of human life.  And I wonder how Kate and Gerry McCann must be feeling.  They or friends of theirs instigated the latest press furore over internet trolls and their vile comments – which until then I and the vast majority of the population must have been unaware.  Inadvertently these obnoxious comments were now given a much wider audience.  And now this ‘troll’ has killed herself.  And so the McCann tragedy continues, which was all started one summer night in Portugal when the real crime was committed.  I wonder if we will ever discover the truth and put an end to all this misery.

A Senseless Waste of Human Life

Monday 6th October

Well actually every death is, especially those that could so easily be avoided; starvation, disease and neglect.  But then to add to these we have wars, I have almost lost count of the conflicts going on in the world today, and all the deaths do not add one iota to human improvement; they are all senseless.  But in particular three recent deaths spring to mind.

Alan Henning of course; by all accounts a good if slightly naïve man, who hoped that his actions would improve the world.  To die so horrifically must have been truly awful, and again absolutely pointless.  The West, Britain in particular would not change their policies even if a thousand were beheaded.  Not that his murderers do not deserve to be brought to justice, though one doubts that that will ever happen.  And summary executions such as Bin Laden and Gadhafi’s don’t solve anything either.  They just create more Martyrs to their ridiculous cause.  And of course bombing and even militarily defeating them won’t work either.  Even if every single ISIS fighter were killed, their deaths would only serve to fuel others in another time and another place.  We have to deal with the philosophy that these people adhere to, rather than simply bombing them.

And then we have the death of a schoolgirl Alice Gross, murdered on her way home in broad daylight.  And today the discovery of the body of the prime suspect Arnis Zalkains, a convicted murderer from Lithuania.  The almost inevitable conclusion is that he committed suicide shortly after killing Alice.  Two lives gone and for nothing.  Again – so pointless.  And of course this will only fuel the rampant xenophobia being stoked up by both the Tories and Ukip at the moment.  There is nothing the right wing likes more than a “foreign” murderer and one who only served seven years for their first crime to kill again.  And a young English girl too, you couldn’t write the script.  I wrote a few days ago that I was a hopeful skeptic, but the toxic mix being stirred up the right in this country makes me very worried indeed.

Why Do Things Hurt So Much At Night

Sunday 5th October

We all suffer with aches and pains and when we are young these are quickly shrugged off but as we get older they tend to linger and often seem more painful.  Who knows if they really are; maybe our general sense of weariness as we age contributes to our appreciation (or lack of it) of pain.  And why, oh why does it get so much worse at night, the very time when a good night’s sleep is essential.  And yet as we all know the most minor niggle can become almost unbearable at night.  When you lay down and just want to relax into that bliss of sleep along comes a twitch in your mouth and you have the dreaded toothache, which incidentally you hadn’t noticed at all in the waking hours.  And when you have a cold, the accompanying sore throat is nothing but a minor irritation during the day.  But lights out and laying on your back and you are suddenly racked with agonising pain and you can’t stop coughing.  Sleep is kept at bay by that sore throat, and despite swigging copious volumes of cough mixture you keep waking in pain again.

And it is the same with whatever minor ailments one suffers.  So why is it that our bodies are our worst enemies and the sleep we desire,  and which might actually help to heal us is broken time and again by these exaggerated aches and pains.  At the moment I have a niggling pain in my upper arm; it started a couple of days ago, and during the day I hardly notice it, but at night it is so painful, whichever side I lay on I am conscious of it and even flat on my back my brain is full of the pain receptors flashing away.  I have resorted to ‘deep heat’, hoping that this might work and at least I will get some sleep tonight, even if the smell is pretty awful.  Often when I cannot sleep, toothache or sore throat or whatever I eventually get up and make myself a cup of tea and try to read.  Funnily enough, sitting propped up in bed with the light on I often do nod off, only to be woken in an hour or so as I have slipped under the covers and the pain returns.

I Am So Tired Of These Macho Gestures

Saturday 4th October

What is it with these politicians that whenever times get tough they have to appear to get tougher?  This morning we had Cameron (who had a pretty poor conference as commentators tear into the unfunded tax promises and even how we would possibly cut the remaining almost 95 billion annual deficit, but that’s later) strutting his stuff in Afghanistan, just after he had stopped over at Cyprus to be seen alongside our pilots who are currently bombing Iraq.  They call it being Prime Ministerial, Statesman-like – I call it pretty daft.  It maybe started with Thatcher, I cannot remember Harold Wilson or Callaghan or Heath meeting the troops – but then we weren’t constantly at war in those days.  Then Tony Blair continued the charade, he just loved meeting the troops and then sending them off to die in ever larger numbers.  And now Cameron every so often, and far too often it would seem, is seen as a serious warrior, even if he is actually watching the final retreat from a war we just could never win.   I am not sure just who these images are supposed to appeal to.  Tory voters I presume, who may be tempted to vote for Ukip, but will flock back when they see their wonderful Prime Minister in a war-zone.

Last night on Newsnight, they had three radical thinkers trying to come up with ways of cutting the deficit.  They had been given the brief to immediately cut ten billion from public spending.  Now I would argue that we should be looking at how we can redistribute wealth through tax changes rather than cut already cut services.  One of these thinkers came up with the idea of scrapping the replacement for Trident, arguing that nuclear weapons were pointless, that Britain would never actually use them etc., etc.  On the other side were three “experts” who had successfully torn up the plans of the previous two.  They had no real arguments against scrapping our nuclear deterrent, except that somehow it would diminish us in the World, that it would be a signal to other countries that we were now a second league nation.  None of them actually said that Britain would be any less safe, or disputing the massive savings that would ensue.  Having an ‘independent’ (but actually controlled still by America) nuclear deterrent is another Macho gesture, an annual subscription to the ‘Big Boys’ club.  But actually Germany and Japan manage quite well without nuclear weapons and have forged ahead without spending huge sums of money on a gesture which if ever used would all our spell mutual destruction.

B is for Billy Bragg

Friday 3rd October

What that shouty leftie who can’t sing and plays harsh electric guitar notes?  Yes him, but that is only a fraction of the picture.  Billy came out of the post-punk years with a DIY ethic and sung his first songs raw and just with his simple amplified guitar accompaniment.  But even on those early EPs and Albums there was a sensibility under the sloganising with songs about real people such a A New England.  Always political and he sung in Essex English, not some transatlantic drawl.  But he also wrote about the politics of personal relationships, the power-plays, the guilt, the selfishness and the hope and love.  He sung about all sorts of things; the space race; life in the army; having children and of course Politics.

He was part of Red Wedge and tried to politicize young people during the Thatcher years, not such a difficult task I would have thought.  And even now though he has mellowed he still sings about “No Power Without Accountability” and our sense of being British.  He is a real intellectual and has been on the panel of Question Time quite a few times where he cuts through all the bullshit from the politicians and gets right to the point.  He is a true democrat, believing in people getting involved in the issues that affect our everyday lives.  And surprisingly he can really sing quite well too, and consistently comes up with some great tunes.

A great place to start is his Greatest Hits “Must I Paint You A Picture”

billy bragg

 

Rules for Skeptics, No. 37 – If it’s such a good idea it probably isn’t

Thursday 2nd October

I used to think I was an optimist, then after not a few knocks and a degree of my own stupidity I became quite pessimistic.  Of late I am more optimistic, at least about my own prospects – though you never know.  As far as the world is concerned I was idealistic as a teenager; surely this explosion of youth culture and hippy life-style would result in a far better world.  I almost believed in Communism as the answer, even if the very imperfect implementation in Russia and China had so obviously failed.  I sort of believed that when (and it was only a matter of time) most people realized it was the only sustainable way of life it would just happen.  Historical Inevitability I suppose.  Then came the slap in the face of Thatcherism, the brutally naked crushing of those ideals and the realisation that far more people shared her philosophy than mine.  Nowadays I am a hopeful skeptic.  And in a strange way, just as in one direction things are getting worse in others they are improving.  Racial equality; acceptance of gays; concern over the environment – all of these were once pie-in-the-sky, but are rapidly becoming established as the norm.

So, what does the title of this piece really mean; if it is such a good idea – it probably isn’t.  Almost no-one has a really original thought; rather we build on the achievements of others.  If it was that obvious someone else would have thought it already, and worked out that it doesn’t actually work. And almost every advance brings in its wake more problems.  So although we may think that there is a simple solution to a problem, there very rarely is.  Humans are not very good at thinking through the consequences of their actions, and so we lurch into ill-thought out policy changes based more on ideology than practicality.  And so, during this frenetic Conference season we will hear grand ideas and promises of a better future.  And it all sounds so simple, such good ideas – but they probably aren’t.