Saturday 11th October
As widely predicted UKIP won last night in Clacton and Labour hung on in Heywood and Middleton. But what do bi-elections really tell us apart from the “Let’s Kick Whoever Holds The Seat.” There are often spectacular over-turnings of huge majorities at bi-elections only to see (without the accompanying fanfare) the seat return to its old party at the General election. Only the Lib-Dems seem to have been able to hold onto bi-election victories. And there is also the factor that after all – a bi-election isn’t going to change anything. A vote for Lib-Dem or Greens or UKIP doesn’t matter; they aren’t going to be running the country tomorrow. The whole thing is hyped up by the Media who love an upset, a political earthquake or just anything to relieve the boredom of politics as usual.
So, this bi-election, let’s look more closely at it. Clacton had the sitting MP defecting and standing again for UKIP, he won with 60% of the vote. The Tories went from 55% down to 24%. Labour only got 24% down from about 30% last time, the Libdems came nowhere. So, quite clear-cut – a big swing from Tory to UKIP. Heywood and Middleton was a bit different. Firstly a low turnout of only 36%. Labour held the seat with almost exactly the same share of the vote; 40% as in 2010. But the opposition was routed; Tories down to 12% from 32%, LibDems nowhere. Ukip managed to mop up all the anti Labour vote and came close with 39%.
So, what does this tell us? Hard to say really. Clacton may well stay UKIP at General Election but could just slip back to the Tories. Labour will probably hold on to Heywood. The trouble is that nobody quite knows what the UKIP effect will be in 2015. In Polls they are achieving around 17% or so. Assuming that they get at least that figure they may well pick up a few seats here and there but it is where they come second that may affect things. With essentially a four (or even five) party system an M. P. may be elected on 30% or less of the vote. We all expect the LibDem vote to collapse, except where they have a popular sitting M.P. but where that vote goes could be interesting. I suspect that a lot of their old voters may well vote Labour, who in their turn will lose some to UKIP, though maybe not as many as the Tories.
My prediction – another hung parliament. Labour the biggest party (just) and a coalition of Labour, Lib-Dem and maybe SNP (because they will do well in Scotland). The Tories will lose maybe 40 seats and UKIP win up to 10. The Greens may well pick up a couple more too. So, interesting times ahead.